Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x776b2be22530fb73cf6c9b64bb3f847b47b44dcb2944258163c00dad2a1e8d42
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,457
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,457 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 14c | 1,804$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.56 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 18c | 1,112$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -77%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 15c | 526.67$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 17c | 378.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.03 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 212 | 43.9%93 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 22c | 220.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 15c | 73.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.