Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6ca5350caf89d278a7a72fa8aab1b6d1895baba59b480598b121fa75ad58280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,607 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed Over | 30c | 50,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,999.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 45,755$32,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,569.34 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Under | 71c | 4,000$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,160 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x036c…178dbacked Under | 70c | 3,663$2,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,098.91 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 30c | 2,281$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.03 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 70c | 1,363$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.98 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 10c | 1,239$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…ede4backed Under | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 29c | 892.52$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.41 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 30c | 666.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 30c | 581$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.3 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 70c | 571.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.43 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 31c | 500$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.5 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5c…1768backed Under | 71c | 499.97$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.99 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed Over | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 70c | 411.45$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.13 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 38c | 407.89$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 70c | 397.1$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 69c | 394.87$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.41 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 70c | 359.71$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.91 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Over | 27c | 334.06$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…8ba9backed Over | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…a8b1backed Over | 30c | 332.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Over | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724c…1521backed Under | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 72c | 279.21$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.22 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 73c | 195.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.11 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 31c | 175.81$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 29c | 138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6c…0319backed Over | 22c | 131.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 70c | 125.16$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 31c | 114.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Under | 69c | 109$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…402abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 30c | 99.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…b921backed Under | 71c | 88.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 377 | 50.9%192 W · 185 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3157…5903backed Under | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 28c | 74.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 28c | 72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 70c | 58.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 29c | 51.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27de…9b6abacked Over | 30c | 50.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Under | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…5c5cbacked Over | 29c | 34.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9094…dcabbacked Under | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 71c | 29.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc516…7f3abacked Under | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf986…6833backed Under | 71c | 24.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6f21backed Under | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…a7ccbacked Under | 70c | 19.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 68c | 19.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…988dbacked Under | 73c | 19.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.