Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1acbf3c54a15335be3c4ff3bfd7bef12f381ffff3680a50d179b9647370401b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Portoof FC Porto, VfB Stuttgart
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $178,691 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…c2a4backed FC Porto | 18c | 50,000$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,999.86 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Porto | 69c | 2,879$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.52 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed FC Porto | 18c | 2,719$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,218.62 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +65%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed FC Porto | 19c | 2,149$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.39 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed FC Porto | 19c | 1,600$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.99 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…caeebacked VfB Stuttgart | 69c | 1,422$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed FC Porto | 17c | 946$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.37 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed FC Porto | 18c | 873$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.86 | 112 | 42.9%48 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf16…9c6fbacked FC Porto | 19c | 526.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked FC Porto | 18c | 523.66$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.4 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed VfB Stuttgart | 79c | 347.24$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.13 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ef…c822backed VfB Stuttgart | 73c | 276.63$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.93 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed FC Porto | 18c | 244.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e78…ccd1backed FC Porto | 18c | 147.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +110%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4313…306abacked FC Porto | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked FC Porto | 26c | 109.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed FC Porto | 57c | 106.59$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed FC Porto | 19c | 105.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed FC Porto | 18c | 100$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed FC Porto | 33c | 98.95$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.9 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VfB Stuttgart | 21c | 88.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a30…b094backed FC Porto | 19c | 79.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0a…71bfbacked FC Porto | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…319bbacked FC Porto | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Porto | 23c | 78.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.01 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed FC Porto | 39c | 68.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.48 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed FC Porto | 26c | 64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed FC Porto | 17c | 58.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.96 | 379 | 26.1%99 W · 280 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…29d4backed FC Porto | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +92.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked VfB Stuttgart | 77c | 39.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked FC Porto | 51c | 39.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.63 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe2…5981backed VfB Stuttgart | 78c | 36.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)this page
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Porto vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)VfB Stuttgart won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-2.5)FC Porto won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.