Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x777ac7832664e8cf113d08b4d56ca4ea28ca8a917464d83b194f144dda896947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 39c | 399.94$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 375.46$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 53c | 339.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.06 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 322.48$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf381…40c2backed Yes | 54c | 283.98$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.05 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 46c | 253.81$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.05 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed No | 50c | 217.21$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.49 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 187$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.29 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 57c | 185.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 172$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 162.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 162.17$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 136.8$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 132.66$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.68 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 77c | 129.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 102.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 102.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 47c | 99.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 14c | 95.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…1725backed Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 84.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 38c | 81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…43a7backed Yes | 62c | 78.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 42c | 77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 75.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 57c | 75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 68.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…31b5backed No | 48c | 62.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 95 | 36.8%35 W · 60 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 57.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 53.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 50c | 50.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked No | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 58c | 48.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 46c | 41.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 71c | 41.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed Yes | 34c | 41.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 40.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504c…e5d6backed Yes | 58c | 39.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -4.2wins | -0.53per pick | 65cpaid | -84%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 49c | 38.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 40c | 35.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 48c | 33.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 60c | 32.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 50c | 30.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 39c | 30.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 52c | 28.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 42c | 28.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 46c | 27.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 59c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 54c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 77c | 24.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 57c | 23.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 49c | 22.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 60c | 22.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…2ff3backed No | 48c | 22.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 62c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 17.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.