Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfbbb833d53dd45e45ebc9d91f37e0c5d910a113a8f786f286ce8c9ac2b6dc6a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 73c | 761.94$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$556.98 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 63c | 674.03$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.88 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 524.97$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.73 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 71c | 380.06$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 56c | 303.32$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 69c | 293.93$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.95 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 264.37$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fe…43a7backed No | 46c | 250.56$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 45c | 221.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 219.1$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.44 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 202.94$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 167.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 65c | 161.36$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 144.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 139.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 136.8$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed No | 75c | 133.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 67c | 115.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.45 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 50c | 113.19$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.09 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 27c | 112.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 105$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 32c | 104.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 99.77$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.33 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 26c | 89.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 29c | 88.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec0…7ca4backed Yes | 35c | 86.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 16c | 81.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 27c | 72.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.75 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a1…9379backed No | 77c | 65.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.35 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 55c | 65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 41c | 62.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 32c | 62.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 19c | 58.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 63c | 57.48$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…ee11backed No | 80c | 53.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.64 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked No | 67c | 52.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 33c | 50.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 27c | 50.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 47.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x24f6…b86abacked No | 71c | 47.16$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 75c | 47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 72c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8327…577dbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 40.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 31c | 37.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 73c | 37.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…8f49backed Yes | 33c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…70acbacked No | 75c | 30.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…9f36backed No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda60…7e00backed No | 61c | 28.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 72c | 25.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 69c | 23.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 63c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 67c | 20.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47cf…5732backed No | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 70cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 66c | 17.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 68c | 15.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccd8…6083backed No | 80c | 13.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.