Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7781d8cf989cfce93544edd5bc5ae2615262b1af02101e42660c0d640d1b01bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bayern Münchenof Bayern München, SC Freiburg
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,279
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcf1…99d3backed SC Freiburg | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Bayern München | 43c | 356.07$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.35 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed SC Freiburg | 58c | 256.57$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.7 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Bayern München | 40c | 248.6$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.16 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -62%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked SC Freiburg | 60c | 248.6$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.16 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Bayern München | 43c | 229.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.89 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked SC Freiburg | 59c | 206.97$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.53 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Bayern München | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9403…7361backed Bayern München | 41c | 181.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bayern München | 44c | 142.08$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…01eebacked Bayern München | 23c | 132.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.41 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Bayern München | 40c | 124.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.93 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Bayern München | 39c | 102$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed SC Freiburg | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed SC Freiburg | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 68cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Bayern München | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bayern München | 20c | 67.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…a98bbacked Bayern München | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Bayern München | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d82…14ddbacked Bayern München | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Bayern München | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aca…dfd3backed SC Freiburg | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed SC Freiburg | 59c | 29.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26f7…3ea6backed SC Freiburg | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked SC Freiburg | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)this page
- Bayern München vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Bayern München vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.