Bundesliga · resolved market
Bayern München vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc6d3a8838940b5697f145a3b68bc97c4490a789a329755e15bed36141f94b2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 45c | 7,999$3,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,399.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 5,747$2,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,957.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Under | 55c | 4,538$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491.16 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Over | 47c | 1,500$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.31 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 49c | 1,026$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.33 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Under | 52c | 1,022$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 921.92$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.83 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e11…b5a8backed Over | 49c | 676$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd1…62b0backed Under | 10c | 669.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 51c | 666.81$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.76 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 45c | 605.72$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.46 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 298.08$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.02 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…cf5fbacked Over | 49c | 264.68$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.43 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 50c | 263.45$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.07 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Under | 53c | 215.45$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 202$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.04 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 43c | 164$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.89 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Over | 47c | 160.26$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ece…50f0backed Over | 49c | 143.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 49c | 129.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Under | 51c | 118.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b1…c973backed Over | 50c | 100.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 51c | 78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 154 | 53.9%83 W · 71 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…1437backed Under | 56c | 68.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 91 | 73.6%67 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0981…eac2backed Over | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Under | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 139 | 57.6%80 W · 59 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…a73abacked Over | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 138 | 59.4%82 W · 56 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 124 | 58.9%73 W · 51 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…2698backed Under | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +13.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 51c | 34.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 228 | 54.8%125 W · 103 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 154 | 54.5%84 W · 70 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7581backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 51c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -7.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bayern München vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 3.5this page
- Bayern München vs. SC Freiburg: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: Bayern München (-2.5)Bayern München won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.