AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x778323e318d7df7cbcedaa3df425409bfbadd7b126c403937c3af45d43a60bd3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,245 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc241…1487backed Yes | 44c | 529.81$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.79 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 44c | 460.29$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.32 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 31c | 378.74$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.82 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee36…bebebacked Yes | 55c | 218.25$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 8c | 172.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 15c | 172.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed No | 9c | 171.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +61%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…e97abacked Yes | 54c | 88.34$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x810c…e74abacked Yes | 57c | 72.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked No | 26c | 57.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 56.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7e…7278backed Yes | 77c | 53.69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb04…0697backed Yes | 57c | 50.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 24c | 50.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 52c | 41.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0093…be88backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7678backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…021fbacked No | 62c | 24.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?No won
- Will Freecash - Get Paid Real Money be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?No won
- Will TikTok - Videos, Shop & LIVE be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.