MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77872ed952c571ed03049d7b53ebee92beea58ea2846f44bb77931cb1dea55f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof Seattle Mariners, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,965
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 1,255$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.33 | 1,041 | 50.1%522 W · 519 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 1,235$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.7 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked San Diego Padres | 31c | 895.69$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.13 | 265 | 45.7%121 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f75…df7fbacked Seattle Mariners | 61c | 619.12$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.97 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 573.54$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.65 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 346.78$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.33 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 317.57$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.85 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 236.93$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.78 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 60c | 147.7$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.62 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 134.79$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.17 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed San Diego Padres | 65c | 72.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c9…1ec6backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 72.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 72.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6733…acb9backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 60.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 58.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Seattle Mariners | 35c | 49.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed San Diego Padres | 63c | 46.19$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Seattle Mariners | 58c | 42.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 37.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked San Diego Padres | 60c | 35.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 33.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed San Diego Padres | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked San Diego Padres | 65c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.