MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07d9bdf9769a9a57c72d6c6c547938f1d9a98402b1f654929df890fa494185de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Under | 60c | 35,787$21,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,417.25 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 18,244$7,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,764.52 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 6,328$2,595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,733.69 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 36c | 5,118$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,275.29 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 44c | 2,575$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.17 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 56c | 2,570$1,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,438.98 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 50c | 2,376$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,176.52 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 24c | 1,747$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 50c | 1,533$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.45 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 43c | 753.37$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.49 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 41c | 731.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.7 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 28c | 644.99$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.31 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 64c | 602.27$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.08 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Over | 43c | 561.51$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.06 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 55c | 551.97$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.41 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 56c | 499.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 44c | 492.21$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.63 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 61c | 363.19$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 43c | 350.9$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.01 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 42c | 336.93$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.09 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 57c | 308.85$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.61 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 55c | 299.08$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.17 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Over | 58c | 273.9$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.33 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad77…3d8ebacked Under | 57c | 244.39$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 238.11$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.72 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 44c | 220.34$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.39 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 45c | 214.83$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.76 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 43c | 181.52$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Over | 42c | 180.68$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.5 | 135 | 52.6%71 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 57c | 136.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 57c | 136.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.82 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…0a81backed Over | 42c | 118.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 54c | 89.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Over | 44c | 87.85$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d7…3ed2backed Over | 44c | 76.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 55c | 70.76$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 43c | 67.95$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 29c | 65.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 62c | 61.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 71c | 58.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 41c | 58.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 48c | 56.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 42c | 55.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 52c | 47.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x270f…5e39backed Under | 43c | 46.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Over | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba9…4fa1backed Over | 53c | 38.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d5…11f0backed Over | 52c | 38.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 49c | 36.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Over | 41c | 34.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 127 | 61.4%78 W · 49 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 76c | 34.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 76c | 34.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 76c | 34.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 76c | 34.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Over | 44c | 29.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6691…8a8ebacked Over | 54c | 27.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x478b…69f8backed Under | 56c | 26.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 44c | 24.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 57c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f43…01a8backed Over | 45c | 22.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 57c | 20.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 72c | 14.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres won
- Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego PadresNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.