Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Valentin Royer vs Denis Shapovalov
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77929c462b324fd1ff4bd5d911a5118bda333ae47620a018d0cc0d8c51ebc536
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shapovalovof Royer, Shapovalov
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x843d…e617backed Royer | 27c | 3,984$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.71 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Shapovalov | 73c | 3,767$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,017.12 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Royer | 25c | 2,375$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.82 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…8d76backed Royer | 49c | 2,068$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.92 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…69e7backed Shapovalov | 72c | 1,400$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -5.5wins | -0.23per pick | 65cpaid | -40%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Shapovalov | 66c | 1,295$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.11 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Royer | 28c | 1,200$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Royer | 27c | 1,065$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Shapovalov | 73c | 1,065$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.55 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Shapovalov | 51c | 1,051$536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.99 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Royer | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Shapovalov | 73c | 999.98$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 647 | 55.2%357 W · 290 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Shapovalov | 72c | 862.76$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.89 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Royer | 30c | 733.33$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 164 | 45.7%75 W · 89 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Royer | 26c | 543.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.21 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Royer | 22c | 493.8$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.45 | 178 | 33.1%59 W · 119 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Shapovalov | 71c | 472$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.58 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Shapovalov | 70c | 441.42$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.42 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Shapovalov | 73c | 391.92$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.82 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Royer | 26c | 385$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royer | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Royer | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Royer | 28c | 320$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Royer | 29c | 273.22$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Shapovalov | 70c | 271$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 132 | 45.5%60 W · 72 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Shapovalov | 53c | 260.58$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.18 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…f4f2backed Shapovalov | 74c | 225.68$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Royer | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf97…beb5backed Royer | 56c | 204.71$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.08 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x431b…1d9cbacked Shapovalov | 73c | 190.41$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…4900backed Royer | 27c | 187.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Royer | 37c | 186$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Shapovalov | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed Royer | 21c | 144$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Shapovalov | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Shapovalov | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Shapovalov | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Royer | 31c | 121.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Royer | 49c | 112.24$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Shapovalov | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Shapovalov | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Royer | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76fc…e0bdbacked Shapovalov | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…1bdcbacked Shapovalov | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…3ce7backed Royer | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Royer | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 27.1%35 W · 94 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…751ebacked Shapovalov | 75c | 40.81$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…3df1backed Shapovalov | 75c | 38.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa388…511fbacked Shapovalov | 72c | 38.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 32 | 81.3%26 W · 6 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc17…2a3bbacked Shapovalov | 75c | 34.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbc…3620backed Shapovalov | 73c | 30.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef4…0293backed Shapovalov | 71c | 29.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff3…429dbacked Shapovalov | 72c | 29.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x455a…28ebbacked Shapovalov | 64c | 28.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c07…e331backed Shapovalov | 72c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Shapovalov | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Shapovalov | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70d9…26ebbacked Shapovalov | 71c | 14.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.3wins | +0.33per pick | 57cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.