NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77998a8a05501a2b0029c555d731c4a1df2b45de2413fd61438f651962291a8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 47c | 6,028$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,205.25 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Under | 55c | 2,876$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.92 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 1,844$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.77 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…5098backed Under | 43c | 1,663$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.04 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 1,317$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 54c | 1,060$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.56 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 65c | 954.95$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.77 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Over | 46c | 782.51$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.56 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 54c | 757.65$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.13 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 46c | 628$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.12 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe568…27a9backed Over | 47c | 582.45$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5a…a96cbacked Over | 47c | 575.59$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +113.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked Under | 53c | 522.73$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd0…ea87backed Under | 54c | 520$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5604…b8dfbacked Under | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Under | 54c | 409$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.86 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 55c | 363.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9959…c137backed Under | 54c | 218.13$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.72 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 46c | 217.22$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.64 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 53c | 189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.17 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 78c | 174.58$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked Under | 36c | 125.53$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 46c | 97.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.83 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 60c | 95.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 17c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 27c | 90.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 74c | 89.9$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Under | 21c | 67.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…de2fbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 195 | 48.2%94 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 47c | 54.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 53c | 52.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 47.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 45c | 36.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 65c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 62c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 54c | 25.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a60fbacked Over | 46c | 24.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 20.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 54c | 19.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Stars vs. SabresStars won
- Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.