NHL · resolved market
Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaabf3c4923cbde7b91cdcf886a5b433ac49da6de60fbbb00b37e2e3d3b9e9562
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,919
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Under | 76c | 918.48$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.62 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 730.05$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 24c | 686$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 33c | 550.85$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.53 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 74c | 528$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 66c | 194.94$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 58c | 179.65$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.1 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 33c | 157.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 67c | 134$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Under | 67c | 97.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.51 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 44c | 77.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.09 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ca…9de7backed Under | 74c | 74.32$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…38d4backed Over | 54c | 54.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Over | 55c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 71c | 35.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 72c | 30.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 43c | 25.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.37 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c285backed Under | 76c | 19.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 7.5this page
- Stars vs. SabresStars won
- Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 5.5Over won
- Stars vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.