Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ceb4aab3df82f10a87bae44b6d5ea143e9a89b25697399080e4a63ebbd00a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,618
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,618 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 2c | 730.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.69 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 27c | 614.23$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.52 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 609.38$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.86 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa17…aa48backed Yes | 7c | 598.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.37 | 122 | 26.2%32 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 18cpaid | +133.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…b678backed Yes | 4c | 356.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +558.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 324.27$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.72 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 43c | 305.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 10c | 264.13$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.75 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 8c | 242.65$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.6 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 35c | 177.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 177.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc732…45b3backed Yes | 50c | 166.95$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 165.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.78 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 11c | 153.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 142.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.17 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 10c | 131.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.47 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Yes | 79c | 123.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 22c | 120.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 50c | 91.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 65c | 81.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 17c | 75.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 35c | 72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 54c | 71.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 78c | 65.47$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e4…2d2cbacked Yes | 50c | 59.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 40c | 49.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac73…24b9backed Yes | 54c | 46.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 23c | 46.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 72c | 35.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 69c | 31.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…3c63backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x936b…0e39backed No | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 56c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.