Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x926306251393a5b99bcef49ba45d6755ebe246fc331d44a1513af8e8429e5949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,260
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,260 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 29c | 1,478$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.63 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed Yes | 48c | 985.88$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 348.27$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 48c | 345.05$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 321.26$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 48c | 298.25$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.24 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 283.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 71c | 268.97$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 20c | 198.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.21 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 66c | 182.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.98 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…96b8backed Yes | 13c | 178.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 40c | 172.86$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 163.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.77 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 148.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 55c | 144.93$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.67 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 61c | 143.4$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.93 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 59c | 141.82$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 61c | 141.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 135.62$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 64c | 133.59$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.65 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 62c | 112.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f1…c252backed Yes | 37c | 99.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 47c | 98.4$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…bf53backed Yes | 43c | 97.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58de…02c3backed Yes | 50c | 95.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 46c | 87.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 87.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 38c | 87.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 52c | 81.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 48c | 81.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 17c | 72.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 37c | 72.55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 56c | 70.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.08 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 70.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4da…d5aebacked Yes | 51c | 66.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 54c | 66.03$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked Yes | 36c | 65.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 64.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 55.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 52.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 60c | 50.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 58c | 50.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf5…20f8backed No | 60c | 47.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed No | 65c | 44.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 48c | 44.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…d76ebacked Yes | 35c | 42.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 117 | 29.9%35 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 62c | 41.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…744cbacked No | 66c | 41.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…aa7cbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 56c | 39.82$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65f…4329backed Yes | 48c | 39.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 50c | 38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e29…4704backed No | 65c | 37.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 56c | 37.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 32c | 36.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 39c | 34.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 57c | 32.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 62c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b81…82dbbacked Yes | 41c | 31.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fec…be3dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 54c | 31.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed No | 59c | 30.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 41c | 28.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 41c | 28.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 76c | 27.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 26.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 55c | 26.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 26.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 25.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 57c | 25.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c04…3d8bbacked No | 55c | 25.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 58c | 24.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 62c | 24.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed No | 60c | 24.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b04…f467backed Yes | 49c | 24.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 65c | 24.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 43c | 23.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 56c | 22.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…1225backed No | 68c | 21.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked No | 69c | 20.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 63c | 20.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x139b…a1a5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae71…9750backed No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 52c | 19.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…a7a5backed No | 65c | 18.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4786…ff95backed No | 72c | 15.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.