Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b9c460551ea2e3dd3f492039359c6e77ce98f9c1e67db212a17e64942082ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 7c | 567.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 438.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 330.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 9c | 312.52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 72c | 277$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.56 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 266.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 259.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 79c | 255.97$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…7fecbacked Yes | 4c | 255.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 28c | 231.96$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.58 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 180$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…443bbacked Yes | 14c | 167$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 155.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 148.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 8c | 139.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…e736backed Yes | 50c | 139.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 16c | 130.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…826bbacked No | 77c | 126.88$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69cc…2e44backed No | 77c | 126.42$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 102.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 37c | 101.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…16b6backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 42c | 93.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.22 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 13c | 83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 28c | 76.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 17c | 65.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86b…96b8backed Yes | 35c | 48.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 50c | 41.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…5401backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0175…4264backed No | 76c | 32.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 97 | 53.6%52 W · 45 L | -12.2wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…9678backed No | 76c | 32.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | -12.1wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 45c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 70c | 25.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 79c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 54c | 23.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabea…3257backed No | 80c | 22.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 64 | 73.4%47 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 75cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 73c | 20.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2b…111cbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 58c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 78c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 79c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.71 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.