Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe95fe5e1f6339da4261dc7b5d7bf62f2992a04089f86b0dff1ee03078f34a59d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bff…882cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,596$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…c277backed Yes | 37c | 1,027$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 548.03$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 11c | 475$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 4c | 316.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 268.28$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.31 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 66c | 237.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 72c | 216.89$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.07 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 7c | 216.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 29c | 214.88$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 65c | 139.09$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…55cabacked Yes | 10c | 136.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 11c | 135.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf4d…33edbacked Yes | 15c | 120.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…e54ebacked Yes | 16c | 118.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f1…1f53backed No | 55c | 117.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 18c | 107.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 67c | 102.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 17c | 83.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 18c | 78.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…af53backed Yes | 35c | 78.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715e…c3b0backed Yes | 26c | 77.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…990dbacked Yes | 26c | 69.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 74c | 67.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 60.42$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…ad2cbacked Yes | 55c | 60.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed No | 65c | 59.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 56c | 56.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 39c | 53.24$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 52c | 50.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 66c | 50.34$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…cef2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362f…b8eabacked No | 55c | 49.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed No | 80c | 47.88$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9517…6d45backed No | 70c | 47.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 63c | 44.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401b…cb4bbacked Yes | 26c | 42.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed Yes | 35c | 41.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65df…6144backed Yes | 66c | 41.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…1ad7backed No | 76c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 64 | 79.7%51 W · 13 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d47…9383backed No | 80c | 37.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 52c | 36.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…6c6dbacked No | 75c | 35.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80b8…7a5abacked No | 58c | 35.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 52c | 34.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6e…b651backed No | 59c | 32.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c77…ff72backed Yes | 45c | 31.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 58c | 31.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7a…5746backed Yes | 38c | 31.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 47cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 48c | 28.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 25.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 80c | 25.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0add…9914backed No | 78c | 25.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed No | 80c | 24.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 63c | 24.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 52c | 22.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed No | 73c | 19.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 19.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 59c | 19.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 70c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c6…ed28backed No | 71c | 16.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 62°F or higher on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on April 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.