Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77faf73d90af9bf978a377d20e497da4444d3fbbb070a14a4fc4913ae0b49ec7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Pipsqueak+4, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,016
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,016 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 53c | 2,853$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.24 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d84fbacked strongboys | 46c | 1,102$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.9 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked strongboys | 42c | 908.52$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked strongboys | 46c | 623.06$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.29 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 5c | 500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked strongboys | 40c | 366.26$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.01 | 110 | 52.7%58 W · 52 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 333.8$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed strongboys | 44c | 173$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.88 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed strongboys | 44c | 172.5$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.6 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 151.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 108.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed Pipsqueak+4 | 66c | 106.06$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed strongboys | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…8229backed strongboys | 39c | 91.36$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 337 | 43.6%147 W · 190 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked strongboys | 36c | 78.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 70$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed strongboys | 47c | 69.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked strongboys | 50c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…32bebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -11.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 34.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 51c | 22.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked strongboys | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…09b8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 57c | 19.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3717…b35bbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 65c | 16.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 52cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsstrongboys won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.