Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4f436aa4c520d00335dfd6ebd0cb02cc3df5e9e549cc072071fc31142f5f2222
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- strongboysof Pipsqueak+4, strongboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,199
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed strongboys | 39c | 985.25$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$601 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b65…e344backed Pipsqueak+4 | 70c | 881.17$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$619.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked strongboys | 39c | 739.7$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.22 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…c9fcbacked strongboys | 41c | 485.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.05 | 180 | 53.3%96 W · 84 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50d…cf54backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 475.85$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.51 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 464$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 380.83$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.5 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked strongboys | 40c | 300$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed strongboys | 60c | 290$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a53…1b12backed Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 278.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked strongboys | 40c | 237$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.2 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Pipsqueak+4 | 59c | 211.95$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed strongboys | 65c | 171.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed strongboys | 65c | 153.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41cd…a24abacked strongboys | 66c | 152.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…e5dbbacked strongboys | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b3…7c36backed strongboys | 14c | 149.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.3 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 10cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Pipsqueak+4 | 46c | 143.06$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed strongboys | 45c | 131.85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Pipsqueak+4 | 26c | 106.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed strongboys | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 98.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked strongboys | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked strongboys | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Pipsqueak+4 | 20c | 75.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked strongboys | 40c | 73.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Pipsqueak+4 | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked strongboys | 39c | 65.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.81 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec70…0f93backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 63.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…8be8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 32c | 56.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 182 | 48.4%88 W · 94 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked strongboys | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 305 | 43%131 W · 174 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Pipsqueak+4 | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Pipsqueak+4 | 36c | 49.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 48.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 145 | 47.6%69 W · 76 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9251…1fe5backed strongboys | 76c | 45.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace6…5556backed Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 233 | 47.2%110 W · 123 L | -15.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccdd…0429backed strongboys | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 36cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12a1…4e4dbacked strongboys | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed strongboys | 40c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Pipsqueak+4 | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6996…cf9abacked strongboys | 70c | 28.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe9…706abacked Pipsqueak+4 | 44c | 26.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 158 | 52.5%83 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…c09abacked strongboys | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb57…32dcbacked strongboys | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Pipsqueak+4 | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Western Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys - Game 1 Winnerstrongboys won
- Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs strongboys - Game 2 Winnerstrongboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.