Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781bcd4ac722a6166dcfd999c612f0b90886a47f036ac69389a6b50fc1f9876c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- TCU Horned Frogsof TCU Horned Frogs, Oklahoma State Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,963 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8738…222bbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 55c | 8,364$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,763.85 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 45c | 4,449$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,002 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 45c | 1,759$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$791.38 | 216 | 36.1%78 W · 138 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 49c | 1,523$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.16 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 48c | 1,455$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.41 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 51c | 1,093$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.83 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 45c | 934.95$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.73 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed TCU Horned Frogs | 53c | 656.98$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.78 | 211 | 49.3%104 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a9…4c18backed TCU Horned Frogs | 48c | 396.51$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.74 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x450b…11d7backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 47c | 337.46$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.61 | 1,251 | 50.6%633 W · 618 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed TCU Horned Frogs | 43c | 325.04$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.79 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48d…fe48backed TCU Horned Frogs | 52c | 230$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.4 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 57c | 213.07$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.45 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 47c | 196.13$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce1…b62cbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 55c | 180.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 60c | 129.47$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed TCU Horned Frogs | 42c | 125.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.93 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 50c | 99.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed TCU Horned Frogs | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…77e9backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 47c | 67.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.84 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 47c | 60.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.48 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 48c | 48.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed TCU Horned Frogs | 38c | 41.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed TCU Horned Frogs | 53c | 39.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 49c | 36.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed TCU Horned Frogs | 54c | 36.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 52c | 35.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed TCU Horned Frogs | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 134 | 57.5%77 W · 57 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Oklahoma State Cowboys | 62c | 22.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e7…884cbacked TCU Horned Frogs | 55c | 18.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-6.5)this page
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned FrogsTCU Horned Frogs won
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 157.5Over won
- Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: TCU Horned Frogs (-7.5)Oklahoma State Cowboys won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.