Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7833b5ef70b0cb2f536026e564c449322e3fdce7d97a54ea456800cb349ef35e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,148
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,986
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,148 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 11c | 34,071$3,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,912.37 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 4,193$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.75 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 13c | 2,290$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 13c | 1,410$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 19c | 976.45$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.91 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 14c | 877$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 17c | 616.17$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.98 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b1…f07abacked Yes | 13c | 594.77$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 29c | 578$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.62 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 75c | 480.82$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 20c | 350.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Yes | 12c | 342.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 14c | 310.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.42 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Yes | 13c | 310.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 17c | 250.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 247.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x330b…6e60backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Yes | 16c | 185.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…c701backed Yes | 25c | 168.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 10c | 135$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 13c | 96.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 75c | 79.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 186 | 51.6%96 W · 90 L | +11.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 76c | 65.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c33…ddd4backed Yes | 25c | 62.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b4…f911backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…7f76backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde3…57aabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 75c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 75c | 26.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 75c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-07-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.