Mls · resolved market
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-07-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46759d9956592145938c1c57a189d4ed07b08aac518eb31114975ff27150a592
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $85,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc1…bdd8backed No | 58c | 17,347$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,346.88 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 12,761$5,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,614.48 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Yes | 1c | 11,777$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd16…5cf0backed Yes | 10c | 8,867$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.11 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb619…5068backed Yes | 43c | 6,000$2,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,579.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…4582backed Yes | 44c | 5,413$2,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,368.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 5c | 2,737$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed No | 57c | 2,334$1,330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.45 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…37ccbacked Yes | 43c | 2,314$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.02 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 70c | 2,094$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.73 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b62…5cc8backed No | 57c | 2,000$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 71cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f6…a10abacked Yes | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 10c | 1,911$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.41 | 530 | 40.6%215 W · 315 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 56c | 1,882$1,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.22 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed No | 56c | 1,636$916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$720 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e0…ff0fbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64ef…befcbacked Yes | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 43c | 977.8$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.51 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Yes | 42c | 952.38$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Yes | 44c | 852.27$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked No | 76c | 831.26$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.86 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +106.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb81…1f15backed Yes | 42c | 800$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…f368backed Yes | 19c | 780.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…a514backed No | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 63c | 680.29$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.47 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 56c | 588.3$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.85 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 69c | 531.68$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.96 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 73c | 474.81$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…46c3backed Yes | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Yes | 31c | 318.85$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed No | 56c | 284$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.96 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed No | 56c | 189$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…db66backed Yes | 13c | 183.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10a…d6c2backed No | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 99 | 40.4%40 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 20c | 147$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed No | 74c | 135.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ec…4d49backed No | 75c | 133.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.73 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 57c | 105.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 16c | 98.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Yes | 43c | 96.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 74c | 96.53$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1f…0d9dbacked No | 73c | 89.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 86.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed No | 57c | 86.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…c70bbacked No | 57c | 77.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 57cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…cce5backed No | 58c | 52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…69c8backed Yes | 28c | 50.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb5…3444backed Yes | 27c | 50.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5b…54f5backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…d068backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Yes | 42c | 37.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 57c | 30.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 132 | 59.1%78 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked No | 73c | 28.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed No | 57c | 26.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5213…6a35backed No | 56c | 21.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed No | 57c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 56c | 20.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-07-25?this page
- Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-07-25?Yes won
- Will New York Red Bulls vs. Charlotte FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.