Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78592d8b52a4bc6b78fe127020aecdb89808b74a242e095c862187b59edbe3bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 33c | 706.68$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.09 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 72c | 572.59$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked Yes | 43c | 470$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 43c | 282.17$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.33 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 46c | 181.03$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 61c | 140$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83a9…5369backed No | 59c | 126.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -86.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 69c | 115.3$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -14.8wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 54c | 110$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.1 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 44c | 92.64$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 76.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1689…a4f1backed Yes | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 52c | 73.71$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.03 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…1f61backed No | 21c | 48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 42c | 44.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed No | 65c | 41.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…a756backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ff…fe1fbacked No | 40c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b3…0330backed Yes | 60c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f59…6496backed No | 40c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…a831backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…a100backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…3fd9backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c9…62fabacked Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7518…5d3abacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…82e7backed Yes | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf954…fcd3backed Yes | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…04d5backed Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.