Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9a65884f386426af78b032de5df745326c8739f9a2f761ecfbc09d7f1692807
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde32…700cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,289$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.3 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5065…fdbbbacked No | 67c | 1,165$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.19 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 15c | 1,099$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 28c | 863.04$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.4 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf596…026cbacked No | 69c | 824.09$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.07 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 7c | 635$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 72c | 392.54$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.45 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 10c | 362.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 24c | 347.31$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.08 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked Yes | 45c | 242.39$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.11 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdde6…5406backed Yes | 31c | 230$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 64c | 199$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 17c | 135$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…f54bbacked No | 78c | 114$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…9f9bbacked Yes | 22c | 107$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5995…6ad1backed No | 59c | 107$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa462…0fb2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 119 | 20.2%24 W · 95 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba7…9b4dbacked Yes | 30c | 95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5597…f3c8backed Yes | 43c | 94$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 32c | 87.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…cf0bbacked No | 57c | 78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a12…2562backed Yes | 43c | 78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…1f61backed Yes | 33c | 74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 25c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e80…585dbacked No | 66c | 67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe323…9d7ebacked No | 78c | 64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4535…4a97backed Yes | 22c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…6d29backed No | 76c | 61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fdb…a2b4backed No | 75c | 48.41$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x807d…9189backed Yes | 31c | 45.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d61…3c32backed Yes | 27c | 39.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 132 | 24.2%32 W · 100 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa57f…77a9backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc335…7ccbbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…73cdbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc25…b95dbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…9661backed No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x287d…fcc2backed Yes | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x288d…dc1dbacked No | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…fce1backed No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…b68bbacked No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9102…66acbacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d4…10bfbacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 71cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 38-39°F on February 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 36-37°F on February 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 40-41°F on February 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on February 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.