Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x786e703458905d1a813aa7568fb9bda3f1f11858f1bb50cdfc5939d09d7b2913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 983.34$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.62 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe004…a97ebacked No | 59c | 837.25$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.25 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes | 8c | 550$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 79c | 386.73$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 26c | 206.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 170.66$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 147.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 25c | 146.35$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 18c | 131$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 118.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 109.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 11c | 107.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…1465backed Yes | 73c | 104.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 95.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 70c | 73.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.14 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 53c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 47c | 71.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 23c | 69.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 31c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 36c | 55.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked Yes | 30c | 49.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 75c | 46.49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 27c | 40.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed No | 80c | 37.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 69c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked No | 43c | 27.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 72c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 54c | 20.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d44…7023backed Yes | 68c | 20.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 56 | 80.4%45 W · 11 L | +17.3wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…2512backed No | 65c | 19.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 80c | 17.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 75c | 16.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 15.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 73c | 14.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.