Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb58e9d2ce42d055c2dea7c5814750966bb6e62ea116ec9e94e9e4aa04d49eda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,021
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 57c | 434.54$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.61 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 64c | 357.43$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 290.62$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 50c | 202.16$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.7 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 200.87$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…e6ddbacked No | 69c | 180.82$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 66c | 151.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 29c | 119.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 118.8$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 118.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 51c | 100.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8c…c89cbacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 96.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 24c | 92.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b219backed Yes | 31c | 91.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 54c | 84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c39…7fbdbacked Yes | 35c | 83.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 42c | 77.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 37c | 76.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 53c | 76.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 68c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed Yes | 29c | 69.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 68.36$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…3208backed Yes | 52c | 65.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 104 | 36.5%38 W · 66 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 47c | 64.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 48c | 62.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 63c | 61.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 51c | 59.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 56.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 53.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 28c | 52.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…5e72backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 45c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 47.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 47.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 39c | 47.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 54c | 45.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 57c | 42.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 28c | 42.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 54c | 42.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 48c | 41.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 49c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 32c | 37.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 41c | 37.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 28c | 37.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 41c | 34.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…d659backed Yes | 35c | 32.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 271 | 30.6%83 W · 188 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 48c | 31.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd144…eb62backed Yes | 38c | 30.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 61c | 30.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 56c | 28.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 55c | 28.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 54c | 28.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d90…2512backed No | 80c | 23.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5108…4b84backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 53c | 19.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed No | 80c | 13.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.