NBA · resolved market
Will a NBA play-in team win a first round series?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7875640c95d3bb30496054542aaec54414e8d650d5f3f3abc6f32feab66ac1fd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,392
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb657…6c1fbacked Yes | 65c | 33,108$21,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,587.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda09…9272backed No | 35c | 33,108$11,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,587.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 35c | 2,853$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.42 | 116 | 54.3%63 W · 53 L | +9.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 67c | 2,321$1,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.87 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 63c | 1,823$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.73 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,129$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ab…79e1backed No | 38c | 1,090$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 63c | 1,012$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.3 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 34c | 999.98$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.99 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed Yes | 45c | 694$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.7 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 44c | 674.24$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.12 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 66c | 450.01$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Yes | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 40c | 244.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed No | 42c | 208.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 75c | 176$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7d…2bdcbacked Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 40c | 150$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 51c | 131.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.54 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1484…cafebacked Yes | 78c | 115.11$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 297 | 38.7%115 W · 182 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Yes | 79c | 112.81$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cad…b991backed Yes | 58c | 111.83$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 93.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.18 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb393…f733backed Yes | 69c | 87.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 67.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed No | 50c | 62.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 645 | 17.1%110 W · 535 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 43c | 40.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 407 | 26%106 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…8826backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 61c | 33.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 38c | 28.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.