Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x788e9b9ef17412d626f43df347b104252e7ad8be0c9561e74adfd87b95b2a383
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 554.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 545.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 9c | 458.53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 16c | 362.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 11c | 243.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99b7…177fbacked Yes | 11c | 240.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 13c | 223.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 209.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 10c | 207.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 20c | 202.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 199.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 16c | 183.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 17c | 168.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 16c | 149.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 11c | 147.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 14c | 141.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 13c | 134.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 131.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 20c | 123$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39f5…d1d7backed Yes | 13c | 119.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 15c | 93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 80c | 88.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 18c | 77.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7704…e9b1backed Yes | 20c | 73.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x910e…29bcbacked Yes | 21c | 48.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 78c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.