Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4acf32afe8e2b1266908c9aa9f220e4e66c2633bbf8ff82cd141e27cb300c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,419
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 7c | 1,887$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.72 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 4c | 1,405$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 14c | 624.95$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.34 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 49c | 464$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.22 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…df29backed Yes | 61c | 395.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.49 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 326.94$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.43 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 3c | 301.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 6c | 252.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 68c | 241.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.7 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 15c | 214.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 49c | 212.43$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…e901backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 13%7 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 149.51$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.67 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 39c | 140.85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 70c | 139.06$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 56c | 135.19$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked No | 18c | 131.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked No | 9c | 120$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 58c | 107.53$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 52c | 95.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.7 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 57c | 94.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.47 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 89.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 57c | 82.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d65…da6ebacked Yes | 65c | 81.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 31c | 79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb70a…0883backed No | 64c | 78.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 78 | 66.7%52 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 78.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 48c | 72.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 64c | 69.67$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 69.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 40c | 68.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.35 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 62c | 67.82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 28c | 63.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 61c | 59.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 31c | 59.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 55c | 56.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 50.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 49.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 48.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…2e48backed Yes | 64c | 46.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 66c | 45.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 42c | 44.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 43c | 44.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa336…43f1backed Yes | 69c | 42.37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 39c | 41.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 37c | 40.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 54c | 39.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 43c | 39.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 44c | 38.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 37c | 37.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 38c | 37.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 75c | 37.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x884c…2ee9backed Yes | 42c | 33.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb370…1e7fbacked Yes | 39c | 30.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 71c | 29.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes | 36c | 28.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 64c | 26.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 65c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 59c | 19.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed Yes | 73c | 19.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 69c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 57c | 17.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.