Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cab41d689a0beb9b22054646156c0e07e39d171bd6af8fc35ec8cec63cccd96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 2c | 729.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 71c | 390.69$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 61c | 326.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x901f…64f0backed Yes | 10c | 218.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 131 | 33.6%44 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 71c | 194.65$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.87 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 35c | 179.12$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 177.75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 20c | 169.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.66 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked Yes | 40c | 128.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 128.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 39c | 119.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 37c | 113.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 112.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 27c | 105.46$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 38c | 89.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.69 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 30c | 82.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 23c | 81.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10c8…826bbacked No | 67c | 79.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 67c | 72.17$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 70.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 42c | 67.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 67.04$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 63.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…de8abacked Yes | 36c | 60.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 166 | 26.5%44 W · 122 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 34c | 55.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 55.6$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc09b…38e2backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 39c | 48.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 33c | 48.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 62c | 46.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafa9…5ed8backed Yes | 26c | 41.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 35c | 40.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 72c | 38.94$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 65c | 38.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 35.52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 39c | 35.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 60c | 31.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 61c | 31.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 30.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 66c | 29.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 65c | 29.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3e…68a4backed Yes | 39c | 28.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 65c | 26.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…7bb2backed No | 75c | 25.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6d…5e2cbacked No | 62c | 23.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 67c | 23.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46f…3cbcbacked No | 68c | 21.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked No | 75c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked No | 65c | 19.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.