Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ae43d80746df448f7536a5fe4d688ed043ad2dc638b8a6aacbe02472b04b13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ff…61cebacked Yes | 1c | 4,548$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,379$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.85 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 14c | 917.18$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.62 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 637.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 6c | 595.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 9c | 536.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked Yes | 17c | 526.44$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 18c | 378.74$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 23c | 366.37$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.48 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 6c | 362.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 5c | 271.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 10c | 232.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 8c | 209.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 15c | 189.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 16c | 173.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Yes | 18c | 165.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 19c | 161.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 134.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 20c | 131.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 18c | 110.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 100.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…b8c9backed No | 74c | 65.8$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 77c | 36.04$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 76c | 31.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 79c | 24.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac11…bdd1backed No | 74c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.