TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$26,481
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$31,645

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,481 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb901…9fc4backed No65c1,640$1,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.5511883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Yes2c1,400$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26735.5%4 W · 69 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+161.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes2c1,380$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24523.8%2 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+93.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf393…d509backed No65c822.91$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.6322100%22 W · 0 L+9.2wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+94.8%equal weight72+0.20 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed Yes10c735$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.1526327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89e3…5d22backed No65c601.68$391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.596764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x238d…eb74backed Yes2c600$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12631.6%1 W · 62 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No61c550.59$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.0618368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes38c486.69$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.3214626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb9d…6804backed Yes40c400$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf565…cb93backed Yes40c400$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582425%6 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45b3…eed5backed Yes40c400$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1582119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-34.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf8b7…4834backed Yes40c399.99$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601910.5%2 W · 17 L-5.1wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-75.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xcf79…92b6backed Yes39c399.98$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.992218.2%4 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c375$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.756219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No65c300.29$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes21c300$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d8…56bbbacked No64c294.23$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.2514752.4%77 W · 70 L+11.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+15.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x42d1…8769backed Yes35c288.96$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.141618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-0.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c262.26$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xcd4c…0b31backed Yes36c254.1$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.721711.8%2 W · 15 L-3.2wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-45.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c40…af19backed Yes39c253.42$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.845731.6%18 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdf8…e39ebacked Yes36c241.72$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.941612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.19per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c218.25$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.517,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes38c215.84$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8751321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes35c204.7$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.931915.8%3 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-57.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63f8…750bbacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702317.4%4 W · 19 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-40.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe89f…c2c6backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702119%4 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1fc3…b884backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid+6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0a9…6747backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bae…a1c9backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702119%4 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-34.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf821…f546backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8af…603bbacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick30cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x35cd…36a8backed Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701513.3%2 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-38%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x113f…120ebacked Yes35c200$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-34.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c87…d952backed Yes35c199.97$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.991612.5%2 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x63fd…ae6ebacked Yes44c199.21$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.652020%4 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes36c187.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2152322.6%118 W · 405 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes34c177.01$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.285,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No64c156.24$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2583360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63dc…ecefbacked No64c120.5$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.381392.3%12 W · 1 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick63cpaid+59.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xeb00…5461backed Yes39c111.03$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.319648.5%95 W · 101 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27c7…4399backed No61c110.45$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.193560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes37c108.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.1360236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c31…68a1backed No61c105.64$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8119547.2%92 W · 103 L-9.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed No65c103.92$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3718668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes36c95.47$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.969,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ac1…1a0ebacked No63c89.25$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.023537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes41c85.01$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8230131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes38c85.01$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked No65c83.21$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.1220342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No62c81.36$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.9227167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes22c77.54$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.837,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No55c73.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.0134250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes32c69.96$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.095437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes41c68.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.674,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes38c62.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8128142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf31…3255backed No62c62.06$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.583850%19 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ead…b7bfbacked No62c61.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.194170.7%29 W · 12 L+7.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+46.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes35c60.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed No64c59.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4813630.1%41 W · 95 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes38c59.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1699949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes37c55.58$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.682020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes37c55.45$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.523026.7%8 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f7…0312backed No65c55.37$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3814663%92 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8091…3178backed No63c52.37$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.386137.7%23 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No64c50.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.221,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf49…2486backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1815545.2%70 W · 85 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d86…9671backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.56833.8%23 W · 45 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes40c49.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.991,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…b8c9backed Yes38c49.7$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.753333.3%11 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.562,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes40c48.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6763538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No61c48.15$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.941,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2493…8c5ebacked Yes39c47.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3c4…e793backed Yes40c47.45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.794223.8%10 W · 32 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes41c47.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.291,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x49d6…8b53backed Yes40c47$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.85154.9%28 W · 23 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes39c46.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.293,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa05…9907backed No64c43.92$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.816567.7%44 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf074…2fd0backed No61c40.93$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.952657.7%15 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+34.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd2d…d7f8backed No60c38.37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.351758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No64c37$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3213663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x919d…d88cbacked Yes42c33.82$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1314544.8%65 W · 80 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x890d…7522backed Yes38c31.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6410652.8%56 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes36c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.859125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes39c28.9$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.383748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes40c28$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.122934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9631…a38cbacked Yes36c27.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0449750.3%250 W · 247 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes42c26.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.941,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…8623backed No64c26.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.473464.7%22 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No68c26.06$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed Yes46c25.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.45521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xd8d5…f41abacked No58c24.12$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.13757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed No64c23.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5416944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x268e…dfaebacked No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.441258.3%7 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick70cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9da…ed70backed No68c22.82$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.376371.4%545 W · 218 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4302…8d4fbacked No59c22.59$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.288253.7%44 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8be9…845fbacked No61c21.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.416063.3%38 W · 22 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7cf…7825backed No57c20.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.9128954.3%157 W · 132 L-8.1wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.