Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x407f6a73a05c593ce0e86daeb392537e2d2089fc4603fc62cfe67d2e1a3acab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 26c | 726.79$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.32 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 79c | 547.69$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.38 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes | 39c | 535.12$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.07 | 146 | 26%38 W · 108 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 52c | 333.72$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.88 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 327.55$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 67c | 262.06$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 77c | 221.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 14c | 203.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.55 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 188.88$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.53 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 172.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 22c | 125.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 42c | 119.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3d…4492backed Yes | 27c | 119.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +289%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 22c | 111.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 108.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 69c | 100.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 98.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.91 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 22c | 97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.66 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 48c | 89.24$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked Yes | 25c | 87.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 23c | 79.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 78.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.97 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde8b…612fbacked Yes | 79c | 75.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…fd4ebacked Yes | 80c | 71.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 24c | 69.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 23c | 68.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.73 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…043abacked No | 17c | 67.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 74c | 66.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 31c | 59.67$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.27 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 31c | 57.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 74c | 48.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 78c | 48.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 57c | 43.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd0…046fbacked No | 33c | 37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 253 | 35.2%89 W · 164 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 36.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 72c | 33.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 73c | 32.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 31.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 78c | 28.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 40c | 26.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Yes | 79c | 24.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.09 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 23.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 22.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 76c | 21.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 80c | 20.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 59c | 20.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 78c | 19.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 19.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02be…fa1dbacked No | 77c | 17.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 76c | 14.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 78c | 13.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…8623backed No | 78c | 12.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.