Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d9590e15e6638fe791dc706dfadf7576772c33a3f595a2c03fea53fce18883
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 30c | 2,420$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.54 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 262.74$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c40…af19backed Yes | 28c | 247.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 60c | 225.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.2 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 201.72$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 124.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed Yes | 30c | 114$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 73c | 109.77$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 27c | 102.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 25c | 100.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 25c | 98.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 78c | 97.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 88.88$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 71c | 86.81$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.07 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 85.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 78.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 75c | 77.16$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 75c | 75.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 77c | 69.42$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 20c | 68.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 67.69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23e…2623backed Yes | 32c | 58.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 18c | 55.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 69c | 52.17$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…11a3backed No | 69c | 52.15$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 75c | 50.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3602…98dfbacked Yes | 29c | 49.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 76c | 46.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…3bc7backed Yes | 30c | 46.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 45.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 34c | 45.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 44.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…2250backed No | 77c | 44.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 170 | 66.5%113 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 44.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed Yes | 26c | 44.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 27c | 40.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 75c | 38.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 33c | 37.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 77c | 31.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 45c | 31.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 76c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 30.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed No | 72c | 30.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…d5a3backed No | 68c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 77c | 29.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 78c | 28.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 68c | 27.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 76c | 26.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 64c | 25.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa048…c553backed No | 77c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 77cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 75c | 25.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 79c | 24.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 66c | 23.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…341cbacked No | 70c | 21.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f16…063dbacked No | 73c | 21.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…5c20backed No | 76c | 21.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 96 | 66.7%64 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f4…99bbbacked No | 71c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 69c | 20.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 74c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 62c | 19.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 77c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6363…aa9ebacked No | 77c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 71cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…289abacked No | 78c | 15.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a9…2227backed No | 79c | 14.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 71 | 73.2%52 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed No | 75c | 13.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f7…af3ebacked No | 78c | 13.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 79c | 12.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.