Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78ba3a4dd90bc02adf0a5927485121b09046eabd3b2744d7a65f7784bbd8acfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,625
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,625 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 19c | 768.97$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 29c | 620.92$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 80c | 512.5$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.5 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 71c | 332.73$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.49 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed69…7cc9backed Under | 26c | 284.03$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…d7ecbacked Over | 74c | 284.03$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 71c | 281.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 236.22$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.32 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 75c | 222.55$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 194.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 32c | 109.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed Over | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 21c | 81.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 78c | 69.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 24c | 65.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e1…a2f5backed Under | 22c | 46.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…0e2cbacked Under | 32c | 37.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…e29bbacked Over | 66c | 19.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.