Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb69dd98c701e37308a3ad951d9b31f2541355fc94d67a4d3aeb4ed4f33dd9f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,827 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x843e…e477backed Under | 0c | 14,999$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 2,355$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.3 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 2,275$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.05 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 47c | 2,200$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.98 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…78debacked Over | 47c | 1,107$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.25 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.27per pick | 63cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 56c | 700$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.16 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 70c | 600$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d2…090fbacked Over | 48c | 522.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.71 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +4.6wins | +0.29per pick | 53cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…43cdbacked Under | 45c | 518.32$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Under | 41c | 431$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.71 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 370.94$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 59c | 369.33$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 50c | 310$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…1977backed Over | 55c | 265.05$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +133.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…b654backed Over | 55c | 253.27$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 58c | 172.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Under | 42c | 169.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47f9…4731backed Over | 56c | 125.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 44c | 124.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 60c | 110$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 107.51$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.99 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 50c | 68.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde66…be48backed Under | 19c | 55.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 35c | 41.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed Under | 33c | 36.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +10.0wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0e15…8ea4backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.