Bundesliga · resolved market
FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8da8ac75337a5cfdc533d4c5cab136fa1e80e9a33c8c869c18114fcfccdd6177
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,648
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,648 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 53c | 4,704$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 1,832$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 38c | 1,794$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.98 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…8e34backed Under | 17c | 700$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…5f66backed Under | 17c | 700$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 17cpaid | +155.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked Over | 79c | 628.8$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 117 | 62.4%73 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 31c | 589.39$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.68 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 511.18$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.47 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Under | 13c | 435$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 14cpaid | +88.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked Under | 68c | 370.59$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 17c | 349.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +99%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 80c | 322.2$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 62c | 283.37$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.72 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 68c | 282$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.76 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +140.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 36c | 232.64$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.89 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 14c | 217.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 64c | 171.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 141.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.42 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1c…0e2cbacked Over | 49c | 134$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 32c | 125$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 119.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.27 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 65c | 92.31$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 30c | 74.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 74c | 64.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 70c | 40.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Over | 50c | 33.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +84.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 35c | 31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6daa…2c78backed Over | 38c | 30.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 67c | 30.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 41c | 24.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 68c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Schalke 04 vs. Hannover 96: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: FC Schalke 04 (-1.5)Hannover 96 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.