Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78f6353d6503034e27524fccc5a42d0da1ac9a1f999e8b90d31d821cc2c7afdc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 391.69$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.32 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 71c | 383.08$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 29c | 305.52$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 12c | 287.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 226$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.23 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 28c | 225.26$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 199.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 29c | 164$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 156.81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 16c | 154.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 153.81$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.66 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 25c | 149.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 124.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 24c | 104$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 75c | 96.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 96.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 93.79$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.97 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…2725backed No | 71c | 66.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 71 | 38%27 W · 44 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 63.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 63.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 67c | 59.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 77c | 58.57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 56.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 66c | 56.01$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9704…c785backed Yes | 36c | 55.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked Yes | 28c | 55.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 30c | 50.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 22c | 49.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 49.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 66c | 48.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e3…f56abacked Yes | 25c | 42.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 37.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 72c | 24.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.87 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 70c | 22.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5603…81d9backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 75c | 18.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 71c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 79c | 15.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.12 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.