Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x514df71efa7a06c9bd7e8e13dd9a7d76d304fdad94d5e303f97673b0d618a184
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,467
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,467 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 44c | 305.05$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.15 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 17c | 301.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 226$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.28 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 78c | 221.83$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.93 | 244 | 66.8%163 W · 81 L | +20.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 213.44$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 72c | 202.66$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…6c55backed No | 49c | 202.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 18c | 201.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 184.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 64c | 164.09$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 159.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 74c | 156.56$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 65c | 144.11$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 123$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 36c | 118.83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.05 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 17c | 112.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 26c | 109.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 46c | 106.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.7 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 98.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 39c | 84.12$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 54c | 74.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 72.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 70c | 62.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 60.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 19c | 60.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 77c | 59.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 56.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked No | 50c | 55.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 53c | 53.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 49c | 53.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 22c | 48.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 70c | 47.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 24c | 43.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54c3…cac2backed Yes | 50c | 40.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 50c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 33.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 43c | 33.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 61c | 33.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 53c | 31.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 91 | 37.4%34 W · 57 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05bd…72e2backed No | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 30.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 58c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4875…149bbacked No | 48c | 28.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…860ebacked No | 52c | 28.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 38c | 28.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 27.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 45c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4e…9321backed Yes | 56c | 26.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 61c | 25.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 23.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 44c | 22.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 72c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 70c | 21.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…65bbbacked No | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 72c | 17.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.