CS2 · resolved market
CS: Aurora vs TYLOO
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x790f713ebaa4414973a6ef55e2764def981f47db5072e3726b56ec641d52e17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, TYLOO
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,312
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed TYLOO | 35c | 46,669$16,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,389.39 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Aurora | 65c | 24,633$16,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,621.71 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Aurora | 65c | 22,195$14,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,842.04 | 458 | 48.5%222 W · 236 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed TYLOO | 35c | 8,472$2,965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.3 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aaa…0c04backed Aurora | 66c | 4,356$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,496.12 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed TYLOO | 19c | 2,428$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.12 | 273 | 45.8%125 W · 148 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Aurora | 65c | 2,000$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700 | 180 | 51.1%92 W · 88 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x490a…1d4bbacked TYLOO | 20c | 1,836$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.35 | 292 | 35.6%104 W · 188 L | -11.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e8…da92backed TYLOO | 36c | 1,689$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.04 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…3964backed Aurora | 71c | 1,597$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3d…5d4cbacked TYLOO | 35c | 1,543$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Aurora | 70c | 1,258$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.81 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed TYLOO | 27c | 1,225$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.75 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Aurora | 65c | 1,215$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.38 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Aurora | 66c | 1,170$772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.84 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Aurora | 66c | 1,131$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.15 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Aurora | 65c | 1,015$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.27 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x231e…9297backed Aurora | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Aurora | 65c | 692.31$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.31 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed TYLOO | 37c | 680.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Aurora | 64c | 531.17$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.02 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x175b…93aebacked Aurora | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 141 | 42.6%60 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Aurora | 64c | 499.99$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Aurora | 69c | 499.83$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.93 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…e633backed TYLOO | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 300 | 39.7%119 W · 181 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked TYLOO | 23c | 414.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed Aurora | 75c | 397.56$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.39 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed TYLOO | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Aurora | 64c | 283.33$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa2b…adcfbacked TYLOO | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 36.6%63 W · 109 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed Aurora | 62c | 199$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.62 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba9…a8e7backed Aurora | 65c | 184$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89a8…c206backed Aurora | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 98 | 60.2%59 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e9…4a51backed Aurora | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf822…093ebacked TYLOO | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…22bbbacked Aurora | 76c | 130$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 1,393 | 65.9%918 W · 475 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8604…bbcabacked TYLOO | 19c | 123.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -42%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Aurora | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…1f03backed TYLOO | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed TYLOO | 33c | 84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Aurora | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 736 | 58.2%428 W · 308 L | -22.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed TYLOO | 23c | 64.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 208 | 56.3%117 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Aurora | 65c | 59$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcf…a26ebacked TYLOO | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -9.0wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed Aurora | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e86…7932backed TYLOO | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 283 | 46.6%132 W · 151 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed TYLOO | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Aurora | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked TYLOO | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked TYLOO | 45c | 38.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 88 | 38.6%34 W · 54 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f1…f301backed Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 201 | 57.7%116 W · 85 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Aurora | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Aurora | 65c | 27.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…204ebacked Aurora | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.