Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79221ab8f58a26e23881063d9c8d6f45757f05a0f10158a79510299c83e45ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 431.29$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.42 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 349.9$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 57c | 293.65$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.36 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 35c | 244.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed No | 60c | 226.74$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.37 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 210.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 18c | 205.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.18 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 45c | 184.49$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.74 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e66…52f5backed Yes | 8c | 173.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 172.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.41 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 160.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes | 45c | 156.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 151.14$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 50c | 141.43$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 24c | 135.26$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb43…e61bbacked Yes | 42c | 119.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.28 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c0…646ebacked No | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 71c | 101.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 52c | 99.29$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…3e3ebacked Yes | 39c | 96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 91.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 66c | 90.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…c17abacked Yes | 37c | 90.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 65c | 87.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed No | 59c | 75.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 67.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 57c | 61.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 44c | 61.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…7f18backed Yes | 33c | 61.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 41c | 59.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 50c | 56.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 54.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 38c | 53.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 32c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 45c | 49.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 47.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 72c | 44.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 48c | 39.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 53c | 37.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 50c | 37.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…d6eabacked Yes | 38c | 37.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 57c | 36.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 55c | 35.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 67c | 34.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd72f…68e5backed Yes | 38c | 34.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1589…95e3backed Yes | 44c | 32.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…d480backed Yes | 43c | 30.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 47c | 30.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 50c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 42c | 28.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 36c | 28.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 28.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 27.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 42c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 52c | 25.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 45c | 24.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.7 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 66c | 24.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 43c | 24.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed No | 69c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 69c | 23.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 69c | 23.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9881…2c0dbacked No | 69c | 23.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…52a2backed No | 49c | 22.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 73c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb9…90f7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f21…c693backed No | 66c | 19.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +15.5wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 66c | 18.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 67c | 17.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 17.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 17.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.