Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x172211d6934896308acc8bf756075ed1c6581f86f744eb7c78bd09d247125baf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 0c | 3,591$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc239…6459backed No | 8c | 936.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.96 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 11c | 687.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.45 | 2,213 | 23.7%525 W · 1,688 L | +86.2wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 21c | 563.76$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.85 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 525.15$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.92 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 336.13$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.08 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 283.09$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 15c | 272.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10c0…a15ebacked No | 64c | 251.87$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.71 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked Yes | 22c | 244.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.17 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 25c | 220.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.68 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 8c | 214.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.7 | 1,440 | 27.8%400 W · 1,040 L | +75.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…4dc0backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x974c…7ba3backed Yes | 9c | 195.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 42cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 78c | 194.08$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.39 | 166 | 51.8%86 W · 80 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 9c | 179.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc967…91d5backed Yes | 11c | 178.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 8c | 176.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b6…7ccebacked Yes | 12c | 160.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 10c | 139.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 608 | 19.6%119 W · 489 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 11c | 127.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.21 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 68c | 116.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.54 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed Yes | 69c | 115.83$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ac…9958backed Yes | 10c | 114.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +317.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x269a…3e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 114.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 19c | 101.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.19 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 13c | 101.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.9 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf9…6e4ebacked No | 79c | 99.98$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.98 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 20c | 84.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.77 | 210 | 24.3%51 W · 159 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 72.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 68.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.18 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 20c | 65.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 61.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 25c | 60.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 713 | 33.5%239 W · 474 L | +33.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,327 | 34.1%452 W · 875 L | +46.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 51c | 57.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56a6…0529backed Yes | 29c | 56.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…fddebacked Yes | 21c | 53.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 52c | 52.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 1,244 | 16.7%208 W · 1,036 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 61c | 52.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 75c | 51.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 49.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 23c | 46.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 44c | 41.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 73c | 40.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,145 | 63.5%727 W · 418 L | +30.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 36.42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 78c | 34.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed Yes | 61c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 25.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 1,706 | 60.7%1,035 W · 671 L | -23.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 56c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 51c | 23.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,595 | 78.6%1,253 W · 342 L | +41.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 18.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 78c | 14.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 262 | 69.5%182 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.