Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefea8b6595fe06eab3dbccfebd90719d8f369eef68376b92f9d4842042382c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 477.82$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 311.12$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 34c | 209.19$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x378a…a773backed Yes | 24c | 189.37$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.22 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 171.72$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.73 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe418…f304backed Yes | 35c | 159.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed No | 77c | 149.61$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed Yes | 16c | 126.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 285 | 17.9%51 W · 234 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 42c | 121.11$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b85…7265backed No | 65c | 115.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked No | 61c | 96.06$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8d4…3e3ebacked Yes | 36c | 95.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cf…7f18backed Yes | 35c | 89.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 65c | 80.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 76.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf66…30e4backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes | 19c | 69.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c32…093ebacked Yes | 43c | 68.14$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 67.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 44c | 64.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1e38backed No | 65c | 59.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 59.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 56.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 21c | 55.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 26c | 54.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 28c | 54.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 36c | 51.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed No | 75c | 50.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73c…ca1dbacked Yes | 35c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 31c | 48.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed No | 64c | 48.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 42c | 47.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 46.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 46.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked No | 67c | 43.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1de8…0e79backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 99 | 80.8%80 W · 19 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 75c | 39.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe708…4e48backed Yes | 46c | 39.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4507…b272backed No | 62c | 38.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 40c | 38.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 77c | 38.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4671…b5eebacked No | 73c | 37.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 27c | 37.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 35.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…d6eabacked Yes | 40c | 35.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…ff72backed Yes | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 62c | 34.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…9c1bbacked Yes | 39c | 30.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 64c | 28.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843d…89bcbacked Yes | 42c | 28.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 77c | 22.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 70c | 22.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea21…f753backed No | 71c | 19.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | +18.8wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 65c | 19.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8d…5e90backed No | 65c | 18.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 74c | 16.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20f2…3b5cbacked No | 71c | 14.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae7…10d5backed No | 70c | 14.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.3 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.