Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7923fbdf8e1e36f4d9072071e758d1a12ea9fe36b82c2cb70add799beb28cca1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,128
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 2,721$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,233.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbce…507dbacked No | 78c | 1,659$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,293.65 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 7c | 624.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4127…a8cebacked Yes | 16c | 553.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.31 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 3c | 523.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.06 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fad…1a08backed Yes | 11c | 443.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.52 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 279$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.65 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 20c | 229.64$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.55 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 199.22$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.41 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 26c | 176.77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.69 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.25 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 19c | 144.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.1 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 129.14$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.23 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x880a…308ebacked Yes | 26c | 121$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 55c | 113.43$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 10c | 113$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.93 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 107.44$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 16c | 107.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.43 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 66c | 105.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 77c | 102.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed No | 70c | 67.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 68c | 60.54$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 41c | 54.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…d572backed Yes | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 374 | 65.2%244 W · 130 L | +23.4wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 47.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 43.35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 43c | 41.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 66c | 38.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 32c | 34.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 49c | 33.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf51d…4982backed No | 74c | 31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…3797backed Yes | 51c | 26.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 34 | 97.1%33 W · 1 L | +17.6wins | +0.52per pick | 45cpaid | +136.5%equal weight | 83+0.30 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…f9febacked No | 77c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 77c | 23.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 72c | 20.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on August 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on August 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on August 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.