Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x793dcf13c7486c6137e6b138635fac8f824d0a4bd4b44f3f11f89406f9f2b12d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,040
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,040 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa326…1b16backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,040$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 270.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 178$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 47c | 175.76$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 34c | 155$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 144.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.52 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 140.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 16c | 101.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 78c | 92.13$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 51c | 90.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 49c | 74.64$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 68c | 69.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 68.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 34c | 54.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 76c | 43.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 36c | 41.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 60c | 40.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked Yes | 33c | 38.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 45c | 37.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d9…a418backed No | 64c | 26.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 63c | 26.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 77c | 25.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 21.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 79c | 20.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 51c | 20.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb93…8fe7backed Yes | 60c | 19.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcac0…a0b8backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 32°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.