NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79434c94a7a6dbbcd9a01286989cdef8e26f88290b7c2e7ae3930cd3427aa50b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Celtics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Celtics | 52c | 3,047$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575.04 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Celtics | 48c | 3,000$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Celtics | 53c | 2,502$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,325.88 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pistons | 49c | 2,044$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Pistons | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Pistons | 50c | 1,935$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.82 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked Pistons | 52c | 1,039$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.74 | 203 | 52.2%106 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Pistons | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 275 | 47.6%131 W · 144 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Pistons | 52c | 467.25$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.28 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Pistons | 47c | 394$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.82 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Celtics | 53c | 265$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.9 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Celtics | 50c | 209.49$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.75 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Pistons | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Pistons | 50c | 178.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647d…3cd9backed Pistons | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 47c | 142$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Celtics | 50c | 68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 346 | 44.2%153 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Pistons | 49c | 62.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Celtics | 53c | 60.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Celtics | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 39.4%104 W · 160 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Celtics | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 353 | 52.4%185 W · 168 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba4c…9dc3backed Celtics | 51c | 49.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Pistons | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Celtics | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Pistons | 42c | 39.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Celtics | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Pistons | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)this page
- Celtics vs. PistonsPistons won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 224.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 225.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 226.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 227.5Over won
- Celtics vs. Pistons: O/U 228.5Over won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.