College Football · resolved market
Spread: Alabama (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7975a98eed7ac3197eee2b09a6828c8b5a1150b17785e3696e3d535e674f810d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alabamaof Alabama, LSU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,446
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Alabama | 48c | 33,978$16,413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,564.56 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed LSU | 52c | 25,108$12,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,969.44 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed LSU | 52c | 24,130$12,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,646 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Alabama | 48c | 18,978$9,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,937.58 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…b454backed LSU | 52c | 18,048$9,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,380.76 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Alabama | 48c | 10,794$5,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,614.26 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed LSU | 53c | 4,409$2,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,324.45 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Alabama | 47c | 4,315$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,285.94 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Alabama | 49c | 3,299$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Alabama | 48c | 3,020$1,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,580.44 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed LSU | 50c | 2,326$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.2 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed LSU | 51c | 2,257$1,151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.02 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed LSU | 52c | 1,826$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$949.52 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Alabama | 48c | 1,814$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.28 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Alabama | 47c | 1,702$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.13 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked LSU | 52c | 1,650$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…2229backed LSU | 52c | 999.35$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.66 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Alabama | 47c | 967$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.51 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Alabama | 47c | 763.64$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.73 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed LSU | 51c | 521$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.71 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed LSU | 53c | 471.7$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Alabama | 48c | 454.52$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.24 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Alabama | 51c | 435.29$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.29 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Alabama | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Alabama | 48c | 357.69$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Alabama | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Alabama | 50c | 198.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed LSU | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…6137backed LSU | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed LSU | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Alabama | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Alabama | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Alabama | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…dd56backed Alabama | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked LSU | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Alabama | 49c | 52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Alabama | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Alabama | 50c | 42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Alabama | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Alabama | 46c | 38.63$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709f…635abacked Alabama | 48c | 24.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Alabama (-10.5)this page
- LSU vs. AlabamaAlabama won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Alabama (-9.5)Alabama won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.