NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x797a4af8a824fc336de22cb7b01d4a680c87330ef2f9e3a5a93f0c7fb089b9e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 51c | 19,992$10,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,196.06 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 55c | 11,141$6,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,127.66 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb635…38f6backed Under | 49c | 10,206$5,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,205.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…3618backed Under | 49c | 9,303$4,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,744.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 7,256$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,001.93 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…4e99backed Under | 45c | 2,222$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.22 | 164 | 42.1%69 W · 95 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 57c | 1,158$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae53…d80bbacked Under | 45c | 536.66$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.16 | 409 | 52.1%213 W · 196 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked Under | 45c | 464.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.31 | 381 | 48.6%185 W · 196 L | -15.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 239$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Under | 49c | 200.08$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 44c | 180$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Over | 56c | 169.55$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Under | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x243c…9ae0backed Under | 46c | 157.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 383 | 47%180 W · 203 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…3f14backed Under | 46c | 131.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.87 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8af0…1929backed Under | 45c | 103.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x474b…c5b1backed Under | 46c | 101.33$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 49c | 85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 51c | 84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.84 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 47c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.47 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5f…8bfdbacked Under | 46c | 52.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…07cdbacked Under | 45c | 50.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.94 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5373…e46bbacked Under | 46c | 50.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 44c | 44.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 44c | 44.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 32c | 39.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…4f1dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 55c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5this page
- Bucks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.