NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd0b8422cf15efe5e0792a0fc84a71fcbd75e492edd2b661c7c9b09c949db3a0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Timberwolves, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Timberwolves | 50c | 62,038$31,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,017.49 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bucks | 50c | 28,204$14,102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,101.76 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 50c | 20,623$10,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,311.6 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 15,050$7,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,073.62 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Bucks | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,700 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…a0fbbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 9,340$4,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,389.8 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…0c2cbacked Bucks | 53c | 6,626$3,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.42 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba5…d195backed Bucks | 53c | 5,660$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,660.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…819ebacked Bucks | 53c | 4,700$2,491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,209 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9b…e8dbbacked Bucks | 53c | 4,340$2,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Timberwolves | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 259 | 45.6%118 W · 141 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Bucks | 54c | 4,000$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,840 | 517 | 53.8%278 W · 239 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 50c | 2,920$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee14…8055backed Bucks | 50c | 2,818$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.23 | 184 | 53.3%98 W · 86 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Bucks | 55c | 2,479$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,109.11 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Bucks | 50c | 2,359$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,179.66 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Timberwolves | 47c | 2,161$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.89 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Timberwolves | 47c | 2,100$987 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$987 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 1,450$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$681.63 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f68…bcd8backed Bucks | 53c | 1,377$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,289$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.5 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bucks | 50c | 1,202$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.65 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 1,069$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.51 | 409 | 47.7%195 W · 214 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Timberwolves | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.5 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Timberwolves | 40c | 901.2$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.75 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Timberwolves | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Bucks | 52c | 799.99$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Timberwolves | 47c | 656$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.41 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Timberwolves | 47c | 601$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.56 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 53c | 566$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.02 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 60c | 413.2$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.28 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 66c | 390.09$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.34 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…7993backed Bucks | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 617 | 47.8%295 W · 322 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Bucks | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.42 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bucks | 50c | 266.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Timberwolves | 47c | 251.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bucks | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Bucks | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Bucks | 51c | 223.96$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.78 | 747 | 48.5%362 W · 385 L | +8.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Timberwolves | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Timberwolves | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb116…940abacked Bucks | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…09a8backed Timberwolves | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…1b8abacked Bucks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Bucks | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 96 | 59.4%57 W · 39 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Timberwolves | 47c | 144$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Timberwolves | 46c | 141.14$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Bucks | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves | 47c | 121.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Bucks | 52c | 120.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves | 46c | 103.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Bucks | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Bucks | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 628 | 48.7%306 W · 322 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ede…6c27backed Bucks | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 451 | 51.4%232 W · 219 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Bucks | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bucks | 51c | 85.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.09 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked Bucks | 51c | 75.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a3…0918backed Bucks | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Bucks | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 285 | 47.7%136 W · 149 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Bucks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Bucks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b7…2fc7backed Timberwolves | 48c | 50.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Timberwolves | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ce…14b4backed Bucks | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Timberwolves | 47c | 44.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Bucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Bucks | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Bucks | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 599 | 48.4%290 W · 309 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…b8d2backed Bucks | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Timberwolves | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…0329backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -5.4wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)this page
- Bucks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.