NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda06873c2578463f156983feae9728e6d153e3f0d6ab58076cc7d04f77dd52fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Over | 51c | 60,000$30,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,599.97 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 20,531$10,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,499.21 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 49c | 20,040$9,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,220.4 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Under | 49c | 8,803$4,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,489.77 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 4,585$2,247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.23 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 52c | 2,630$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.74 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,953$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$961.66 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.17 | 218 | 52.8%115 W · 103 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Over | 52c | 1,478$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.56 | 296 | 52.7%156 W · 140 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 49c | 1,300$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 1,254$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.92 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 872$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Under | 49c | 830$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.3 | 500 | 47.2%236 W · 264 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Under | 49c | 697$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.47 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Under | 50c | 572$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 357 | 49.6%177 W · 180 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 49c | 392$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.92 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Over | 50c | 306.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.26 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9c…d01bbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x521d…713bbacked Over | 51c | 243.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 160 | 52.5%84 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…2b35backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 293 | 46.4%136 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.06 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e46…0742backed Under | 52c | 134.62$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.62 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9242…60babacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1d…ff79backed Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 48c | 79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.05 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Under | 52c | 77.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.38 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Under | 49c | 77.36$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.45 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…9efebacked Under | 49c | 46.89$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 53c | 41.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…c99fbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6abe…2205backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ca…e072backed Over | 52c | 35.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 49c | 35.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 668 | 53.4%357 W · 311 L | +22.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Over | 52c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 158 | 41.1%65 W · 93 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bab…af65backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…f545backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 226.5this page
- Bucks vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Bucks vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Bucks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.